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curve: MOF interest rates / 2026-10-23

Yield Curve

1.02.03.04.05Y10Y20Y30Y40Y2026-10-232026-10-221W 2026-10-161M 2026-09-181Y 2025-10-23

Curve at each fiscal year-end

0.01.02.03.04.05Y10Y20Y30Y40Y2026-10-23FY2025 2026-03-31FY2024 2025-03-31FY2023 2024-03-29FY2022 2023-03-31FY2021 2022-03-31FY2020 2021-03-31FY2019 2020-03-31FY2018 2019-03-29

The thick solid line is the latest date. The thin lines are the curve at each fiscal year-end (nearest business day on or before 31 March), darker for more recent years — the last 8 fiscal years.

Curve Spreads (bp) / Butterflies (bp)

bp
2s5s36.6
2s10s96.5
5s10s59.9
5s20s140.7
10s20s80.8
10s30s106.7
20s30s25.9
30s40s0.7
bp
2s5s10s-23.3
5s10s20s-20.9
10s20s30s+54.9
20s30s40s+25.2

Yields

Tenor2026-10-23(%)Prev day(%)Δ1D(bp)Δ1W(bp)Δ1M(bp)Δ1Y(bp)52wRSINSS resPC res
1Y1.6421.660-1.8-0.7+6.4+89.5 93%57+0.1+7.8history
2Y1.8721.914-4.2-4.6+2.3+93.9 92%46-0.2+2.6history
3Y1.9792.028-4.9-7.1-0.3+96.7 88%41-1.6-0.1history
4Y2.1212.184-6.3-9.3-3.9+98.7 86%36+2.4-2.8history
5Y2.2382.304-6.6-9.7-6.7+100.9 86%35+3.2-2.3history
6Y2.3252.399-7.4-11.1-9.8+102.4 84%31-0.1-3.9history
7Y2.4282.508-8.0-11.8-11.0+103.6 81%31-2.6-4.1history
8Y2.5802.659-7.9-11.5-12.0+109.3 81%30-0.5-2.6history
9Y2.7082.785-7.7-11.9-13.0+112.4 80%29-0.7-0.8history
10Y2.8372.914-7.7-12.1-14.4+117.0 79%28-0.5+1.1history
15Y3.3733.438-6.5-12.9-14.6+115.3 76%28+0.1+5.0history
20Y3.6453.707-6.2-15.8-16.7+101.5 71%28-6.7+2.5history
25Y3.9393.985-4.6-12.7-13.3+95.4 70%30+4.8+3.5history
30Y3.9043.952-4.8-13.6-14.0+80.3 69%30-4.6+0.3history
40Y3.9113.959-4.8-12.7-12.2+57.6 72%30+7.0-5.3history

Implied forwards from NSS zero curve

%Δ1M(bp)
1y1y2.111+0.3
2y1y2.245-9.6
5y5y3.600-20.6
10y10y5.062-16.7

factor analysis →

Curve regime (last 250 business days)

days%avg Δslope
Bull steep2610+0.96
Bear steep10040+2.29
Bull flat7329-2.43
Bear flat3815-1.48
Flat135-0.08

now: Bull flat(2d streak)・last 20d: bF bF · bF bF BS bF · BF bF bF BF BF bF bS BS bF bS BF BF